The Offensive Is Still in Its Early Days, but a Pattern Is Emerging

As Ukraine’s counter-offensive enters its third week, its overall shape is becoming apparent: a three-axis advance, with the southernmost thrust, in Zaporizhska Oblast emerging as the main effort.    Here Ukrainian forces launched their attack from Orikhiv southwest towards Tokmak, a rail hub that lies midway between their line of departure, and the Sea of Azov (see map).  Beyond Tokmak lies Melitopol, a town that appears likely to the offensive’s main objective.